Tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran, which had been simmering for months through proxy clashes and failed diplomatic initiatives, have now erupted into open and sustained warfare. The turning point came on the morning of 28 February, when Israel, acting jointly with US support, launched coordinated strikes on targets inside Iran. Since then, exchanges of fire have continued for around 30 days, spreading across multiple countries and drawing in a range of regional actors.
In recent hours, Iran’s capital Tehran has once again been the focus of intense bombardment. Iran’s Red Crescent reported significant damage in several residential districts after the latest wave of attacks targeting the city. Search-and-rescue teams are still working in affected neighborhoods. Footage from the scene shows flames and thick plumes of smoke rising from different parts of the capital, as emergency crews attempt to reach people trapped under rubble. Authorities have yet to confirm whether the most recent strikes caused fatalities, but the scale of destruction suggests a growing humanitarian toll.
Earlier waves of attacks on Tehran and surrounding areas had already hit critical infrastructure. Two power plants in Iran were reported damaged, disrupting electricity supply in parts of the country. A site linked to a nuclear facility also suffered a missile impact, intensifying concerns over the safety of Iran’s atomic installations and the possibility of environmental or radiological incidents if strikes continue.
Iranian officials say strikes on Tehran have not only targeted military and government assets, but also educational and scientific institutions. One of the named targets was the Iran University of Science and Technology in the capital. At the same time, local authorities confirmed casualties in other cities: in Isfahan, at least 26 people were reported killed, while in the religious city of Qom six deaths were announced. In the northwestern province of Zanjan, an Iranian official stated that five people lost their lives in attacks there.
Iran has responded by expanding the geographical scope of the conflict. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it had carried out missile and drone strikes on two aluminum plants with US links in the Gulf. According to a written statement published by Iranian media, IRGC units targeted EMAL in the United Arab Emirates and Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA) in Bahrain, asserting that both facilities are tied to the US military-industrial supply chain.
Tehran describes EMAL as home to the world’s longest aluminum production line, with a capacity of around 1.3 million tons annually, and claims the plant plays a key role in supplying materials for US defense industries. ALBA, in Bahrain, is similarly portrayed as a strategic asset, with American companies investing in and partnering with the facility. Iran argues that hitting these sites is a direct response to US and Israeli strikes on Iranian industrial and nuclear infrastructure, including heavy water complexes and uranium concentrate production plants such as those around Yazd and the Hendab Heavy Water Complex, as well as steel companies inside Iran.
The conflict has also spilled over into Lebanon, Iraq and the wider Gulf. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has stepped up attacks on Israel, firing large numbers of rockets that, according to the group, primarily target Israeli soldiers operating in the country’s south. Casualties in Lebanon have been rising, with reports of mounting deaths following Israeli retaliatory strikes. One incident that drew particular condemnation involved an Israeli attack on an ambulance in Lebanon, which left at least one person dead.
Inside Israel, air-raid sirens have been heard repeatedly in Tel Aviv and other main population centers as missiles and drones are launched from various fronts. A strike on Tel Aviv resulted in at least one fatality. Israeli officials, including senior figures such as Eyal Zamir, have warned that Israel is prepared to intensify its operations against Iran if missile attacks persist, vowing that Tehran will, in their words, “pay the price.”
Iraq has emerged as another major arena. In Erbil, in the country’s north, a series of powerful explosions was reported. Air defense systems were activated after the sound of kamikaze drones was heard overhead. Targets included Erbil International Airport, where a US base is located, the US Consulate compound, several other facilities and the Azadi Camp in the town of Koysanjak. The camp houses families associated with the Iranian Kurdistan Democratic Party (IKDP). Video from the area shows at least one drone crashing into a residential neighborhood, underlining the risks to civilians. Over the skies of Sulaymaniyah, residents reported sustained noise from warplanes as military traffic intensified.
The United Arab Emirates has been forced to rely heavily on its air defenses. The Emirati Ministry of Defense confirmed that systems were activated in response to missile and drone attacks originating from Iran. In Dubai, after air defense batteries engaged incoming threats, residents reported hearing a series of explosions. At least one facility in the UAE sustained damage in earlier rounds of strikes, and a hotel in Dubai was previously hit by kamikaze drones, illustrating how the conflict is disrupting one of the region’s main commercial and tourism hubs.
Elsewhere in the Gulf, Kuwait announced that it had shot down six Iranian drones that entered or approached its airspace, signaling its determination to prevent the war from spilling into its territory. Oman, too, has been drawn in, with reports of drone attacks near or within its airspace adding to concerns about the vulnerability of shipping lanes and energy infrastructure. In parallel, Yemen’s Houthi movement claimed multiple attacks, including at least a second major strike, as it positions itself as part of the broader anti-US and anti-Israel axis.
Iran has also declared that it hit a US support vessel and a US-linked arms depot belonging to Ukraine located in Dubai, saying these were legitimate military targets. It further claimed responsibility for strikes on facilities involved in producing naval missiles and sea mines for the Iranian navy, presenting these as defensive measures against what it describes as an expanding Western-Israeli offensive.
In the maritime domain, Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a significant portion of the world’s oil passes. If fully enforced, such a closure would have dramatic implications for global trade and energy markets, potentially driving up prices and triggering broader economic fallout. At the same time, Iran reported launching six missiles toward Riyadh, while international media cited sources saying Saudi Arabia has privately supported intensifying strikes against Iran, a claim that underscores the deep strategic rivalry between Tehran and Riyadh despite recent attempts at rapprochement.
On the home front, the Revolutionary Guards issued a stark warning to Washington, insisting that US troops vacate the bases and areas where they are currently deployed across the region. Iran’s leadership has also called on local businesses and authorities not to accommodate American military personnel in hotels and similar establishments, aiming to increase pressure on US forces and restrict their operational flexibility.
Israel, for its part, has claimed responsibility for a broad range of operations inside Iran, including attacks on heavy water facilities, uranium concentrate production in Yazd, and other industrial targets such as steel plants. Israeli officials say these strikes are aimed at degrading Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities and deterring further missile launches. They also confirmed a “comprehensive wave” of attacks on Tehran, suggesting that the campaign is not limited to border areas or proxy fronts, but is increasingly focused on the Iranian heartland.
The human cost of this escalation is mounting across multiple countries. In addition to the reported fatalities in Iran’s Isfahan, Qom and Zanjan, and the growing number of dead in Lebanon, large numbers of civilians have been injured or displaced as residential districts, power infrastructure and industrial zones come under fire. Hospitals in affected cities are struggling with the influx of wounded, while rolling blackouts and damage to critical facilities complicate emergency response efforts.
Diplomatically, the space for de-escalation is rapidly shrinking. Statements from Iranian and Israeli officials indicate that both sides believe they still have room to intensify military operations. Iranian leaders say they are waiting to see “a response” from Washington and Tel Aviv to their conditions, while warning that Israel will have to “pay the price” for its ongoing strikes. In Israel, political and military figures have echoed a similarly uncompromising tone, speaking of completed and future waves of attacks aimed directly at Tehran and other strategic Iranian locations.
Regional actors are watching the confrontation with alarm. The UAE and Bahrain, now directly hit according to Iranian claims, must balance their security ties with the US against their vulnerability to Iranian retaliation. Kuwait and Oman, despite efforts to remain neutral, are increasingly exposed to spillover. Saudi Arabia, mentioned as favoring tougher action against Iran, risks becoming a central battlefield if missile exchanges continue or expand.
The widening role of non-state actors is another destabilizing factor. Hezbollah’s operations from Lebanon and the Houthis’ missile and drone activity from Yemen illustrate how the war is being fought not only by state militaries but also by armed groups that can strike across borders with relatively low-cost technology. This raises the likelihood of miscalculation and makes any ceasefire more complex, as it would have to encompass multiple actors with diverging agendas.
Economically, the strikes on industrial and energy-related infrastructure, the threatened or partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the targeting of key production facilities like EMAL and ALBA are already sending shockwaves through regional markets. Prolonged disruption to Gulf shipping or to the power grid in Iran and neighboring states could have lasting effects on industry, investment and employment. International companies with stakes in targeted plants are facing potential losses, and insurance premiums for shipping and energy projects in the area are likely to rise.
Looking ahead, several scenarios are possible. One is a further spiral of tit-for-tat attacks, with more direct hits on capitals and strategic infrastructure, increasing civilian casualties and the risk of a broader regional war. Another is a push by external actors to broker at least a limited ceasefire focused on protecting critical facilities and reducing missile and drone attacks on densely populated zones. A third, more fragile path would involve back-channel talks between key players, possibly mediated by states that maintain relations with both Tehran and Washington, aiming to separate immediate security arrangements from the longer-term disputes over Iran’s regional role and nuclear program.
For now, the reality on the ground is defined by ongoing strikes, expanding fronts and a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian and security environment. With each new missile or drone attack on Tehran, Tel Aviv, Erbil, Dubai or other hubs, the prospect of a swift, clean end to the US-Israel-Iran conflict recedes further, leaving the region and the wider world bracing for additional shocks.